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  • … pour juger de ce que l'on doit faire pour obtenir un bien ou pour éviter un mal,
    il ne faut pas seulement considérer le bien & le mal en soi,
    mais aussi la probabilité qu'il arrive ou n'arrive pas;
    & regarder géometriquement la proportion que toutes ces choses ont ensembles …

    - Antoine Arnauld & Pierre Nicole's (1662, IV, 16) La logique, ou l'art de penser in the original French

    … to judge what one ought to do to obtain a good or avoid an evil,
    one must not only consider the good and the evil in itself,
    but also the probability that it will or will not happen;
    and view geometrically the proportion that all these things have together …
    - Jeffrey's (1981, p. 473) translation

    Make a Decision!

    1. Recall your possible strategies in Newcomb's problem:
    2. φ1: Take Box 2 only
    3. φ2: Take Box 1 and Box 2

    4. RECOMMENDATION 1 (one-box, pick φ1, and take Box 2 only) is supported by the principle of maximizing expected utility
    5. RECOMMENDATION 2 (two-box, pick φ2, and take Box 1 and Box 2) is supported by the dominance principle

    6. Q: Would the rational choice be in favour of φ1 (viz. take Box 2 only) or φ2 (take Box 1 and Box 2)?

    Will you one-box (φ1) or two-box (φ2)?



    Robert Nozick (1969, p. 117)

    1. A PhilPapers survey was conducted online from 8 Nov 2009 to 1 Dec 2009
    2. A target group of 1,972 philosophers was identified and every member of the target group was sent an initial email invitation to take the survey
    3. In addition, the survey was advertised to all registered PhilPapers users (approximately 15,000 users at the time)
    4. The survey was also announced on the PhilPapers website and in other places on the web

    Survey results for one-boxing versus two-boxing (Bourget & Chalmers, 2014, p. 496)

    1. Of the approximately 55% of respondents who took a stand on Newcomb's problem:
    2. About 40% were one-boxers (φ1)
    3. About 60% were two-boxers (φ2)